Through: Muhammad Syarkawi Raouf
Lecturer at FEB Unhas/ Principal curator at PTPN IX
TRIBUN-TIMUR.COM – The world economy over the past year has been marked by three phenomena, namely the strong phenomenon dollars US, solid rubles Russia and a weakening of the Turkish lira.
The phenomenon of the strengthening of the American dollar and rubles Russia caused by different factors.
powerful phenomenon dollars The United States was triggered by: first, the increase in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate, the Federal Fund Rate (FFR). Second, US economic growth, although slowing, is better than that of the Eurozone (EA). US assets are the choice of global investors. Third, the United States is a net exporter of energy products.
Rising energy prices strengthened the US dollar.
reinforcement phenomenon rubles Russia caused by post-invasion capital control policies (capital flow limitation policies). Russia to Ukraine. Even the government Russia impose export payment obligations Russia to various countries using rubles Russia.
The third phenomenon is the weakening of the Turkish lira and the anti-mainstream economic response of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), by lowering interest rates in times of extreme inflation.
The above phenomenon can be explained by the concept of the impossible trinity. The concept of the impossible trinity was introduced by Canadian economist Robert Mundell and British economist Marcus Flemming in the 1960s.
Change rate rubles Russia per US dollar has experienced extreme fluctuations after the invasion Russia to Ukraine. The fluctuations are caused by the imposition of sanctions by Western countries and their allies on Russia.
Currency rubles Russia weakened from 75.284 RUB per US dollar in early January 2022 to 144.654 RUB per US dollar in March 2022.
Inflation Russia also saw an increase from before the invasion in February from 9.2% to 16.7% in March and a peak of 17.5% in April 2022.
After that, it declined to date, reaching around 12% in November 2022.
High Inflation and Weak Currency Trends rubles Russia then responded with two policies at once, namely: First, the implementation of capital flow control policies. Second, the Central Bank’s anti-mainstream monetary policy Russia lowering the benchmark interest rate by 8% in October and 7.5% in November 2022.
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